2026 NHL Draft Rankings with Scott Wheeler from The Athletic

In this episode of The Draft Board Hockey Show, we are joined by a special guest, Scott Wheeler who is an NHL writer for The Athletic and gives us an update to his 2026 NHL draft ranking April edition, and some of the big risers and fallers since the beginning of the season. Always fun talking about NHL draft prospects with Scott!

Gavin McKenna, Ivar Stenberg, Chase Reid, Carson Carels, Keaton Verhoeff, Caleb Malhotra, Alberts Smits, Ryan Lin are just some of the names discussed.

Hosts: Mark (NHL Draft Pros) and Linc (New Wave Hockey)

Guest: Scott Wheeler (The Athletic)

And PLEASE Subscribe to this podcast and leave a generous rating on your APP of choice to help us grow! Cheers!

FOLLOW US ON YOUTUBE! https://www.youtube.com/@nhldraftpros

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Welcome to the draft board hockey show. My name is Mark, and as always, I'm joined by my co-host Link. And today we have a special guest, Scott Wheeler from The Athletic. Welcome to the show, Scott. How are you doing?

SPEAKER_02 0:13

Doing well. Just back from U18s a little bit ago and uh gearing up for Mem Cup and the Combine and the home stretch here.

SPEAKER_00 0:22

Yeah, lots of fun stuff coming up, actually. And uh, you know what? That's one thing we want to actually start off with. Let's just fire it off right off hop. The U18s just passed, and that is a huge tournament for prospects, obviously. How much does that play into your new rankings, I guess, in terms of you know where it fits with prospects and whatnot?

SPEAKER_02 0:42

It's honestly become more and more an event for the underagers in terms of what I'm learning. Uh, increasingly, teams are bringing their top guys from a year or two out. Uh, so it's it's really an introduction in many cases to some of those players, or or some of my earliest live viewings for some of those players. So it helps you for planning for 2027 and 2028. There was actually one 2029 at this year's tournament. He only played about, I think he's played like seven minutes and 14 seconds in one of the games, so didn't actually get to see much of him. Um, but it's that that's where the the more of the value is. The value in terms of the 2026s is a little bit more muted just because I have a book on all of those kids. Like there were a couple of kids who caught my eye, a couple of goalies who weren't sort of on my radar who I thought played really well, and I'm now going to spend some more time on and ask around about in advance of my final top 100. Uh, there was a kid by the name of Jakob Flores, uh, who caught my eye as kind of a potential mid to late round pick who I hadn't spent much time on throughout the year. Um, so it's more those guys. Like the the true top guys, the guys who are going to go in the first and second round, I've already seen so much of them play that there isn't a ton of added value. And it often feels like I'm just watching the kid play the same game he's played all year. Like there isn't uh there aren't often sort of game-changing moments from those guys in terms of sort of completely resetting or readjusting the way that I view them. It's usually a continuation, maybe some minor tweaks in my list up or down, um, but nothing major from the top guys unless they really blow you away. There have been performances like that over the years. Jonathan Lecker Machia is one I go back to. Like he was he was very, very good at this event. Edward Shawley was very good at this event in one of his two uh tournaments. Dalbor Dvorsky had a really good showing at this event. So there are times where guys can can sort of jump off the page at you or help strengthen their case. I remember being super low on Shalet and then kind of softened on him after seeing him at the tournament. And um, but by and large, like if you're Keaton Verhoff or Ryan Lynn or Tynan Lawrence or Marcus Nordmark or Elton Hermanson or Malty Gustafson, like I've watched you play a ton at this point. So uh not a lot of new information there.

SPEAKER_01 3:09

Gotcha. All right. Uh so I want to more talk about your draft rankings uh as a whole. Uh you published one in March and you published one very recently. Um your top three has stayed the exact same in both of those rankings. Uh, McKenna, Stenberg, Reed. Do you feel that that kind of mirrors a lot of front offices as we get closer and closer to the draft? Uh, that this is kind of becoming the consensus top three uh in the in the draft. Uh is that like just how you're feeling because you've been talking to a lot of front front offices or a lot of people of just your sources, or is that just more of a reflection of how you rank these guys?

SPEAKER_02 3:44

I think there's more of a consensus top five. Um I would add Caleb Malholtry and Carson Carls to that that mix. Uh Carson is actually sixth uh sixth or seventh on my list. I'd have to pull it up. I think sixth on my list. Uh so he's not technically in that top five. Uh that top five for me. Um I obviously have Albert Smith sort of as my fifth guy. Um so yeah, but that that's the group. Like the the uh Vigo's not going to go in the top five, but that that group with uh Carls, with um with Stenberg, with McKenna, with Reed, with Malholtra, like that's kind of your five. I I would expect that Albert Smits and Daxon Rudolph and Keaton Verhoff go in a little bit of a tier below that. I don't any longer have a ton of faith that Keaton Verhoff's going to be a top five pick in this class, the way that he was talked about, at least for much of last year and the early parts of this year, uh, and certainly last summer coming out of uh the Halenka Gretzky Cup and his first of two UA team worlds. Um those guys kind of fit into that second tier with with Vigo, with Tynan Lawrence, with I think Wyatt Cullen has emerged as a potential sort of 10 to 12 pick, maybe eight or nine to the right team. Uh Ethan Belchez has kind of lingered around the top 10 conversation still. Some teams have Oscar Hemming there. But the real core group is those those three centers in Caleb Malholtr, Tynan Lawrence, and Vigo Bjork, the two top wingers in Ivar Stenberg and Gavin McKenna. And then five or six D, depending on on the D that you like. Some people have Multi Gustafson kind of in that at the bottom of that tier of D. But really the the core 5D in the class are Carls, Reed, Verhoff, Smits, um, and and Rudolph has has really solidified himself with his play and Prince Albert in the WHL playoffs in that group in that group. But I think in terms of the true, true top end, I think your top five is probably going to be some version of those five guys. I could maybe see a Verhoff still going there, but I think you're probably looking at Carl Reed, Malholtra, and the two wingers as your top five picks in some order.

SPEAKER_01 6:05

I'm gonna jump ahead of Mark here because I know Mark has the next question, but I wanted to expand more on uh Malholtra and your thoughts on him because uh last ranking in March, you had him just in your top 10, and now you have him at your fourth position. What uh I I think I I think I can get I can guess probably the playoff performance, but what's other things specifically have you seen in Malhotra's game, in his projection as a center, or kind of his his pathway to the NHL through the NCAA that has kind of strengthened your opinion of him uh to put him all the way up at your fourth overall selection?

SPEAKER_02 6:37

It's really just been a continuation. I did a feature on on Caleb in the fall and spent some time visited Brantford and spent some time with him and got to know him in his game sort of early on this season. I saw Brantford play live several times in the fall. Uh, then he was excellent in November at the CHL USA Prospects Challenge, where he was arguably the best player on the ice in that series. Uh Wyatt Cullen was actually also very good in that, but injured himself in the second game. Um and it just sort of built from there. He was excellent in the second half. There was some wonder of okay, when the Brantford Bulldogs acquired Jet Luchenko and others at the trade deadline, would that impact Malholtra's role? Would he be, would he slide down the lineup? Would his his production suffer? Would he end up taking off of PP1? And none of that happened. He remained a constant for them as a top nine center all year. Early on in the season, he was playing with two rookies uh in Lane Gallagher and Cooper Dennis on their third line and was excellent in that role. He was excellent on PP1 all year, and it really just continued into the playoffs, where not only was he excellent in the playoffs, he was their best player bar none. He was better than Jake O'Brien, who was a top 10 pick in last year's draft. He was their most important player, their most impactful performer. He played in all situations for them, late in games, D zone draws, PK, PP1, five-on-five driving play offensively. The skating has continued to come. The uh the skill level is there, the the IQ is there. It's all really there for him. He's six foot two. The one area that Caleb still has to develop is sort of filling out his body. If you've been around him, you've sort of noticed pretty quickly that he's a pretty lean kid. Um, so that that get adding some strength, especially as he makes the jump to college hockey, uh, is going to be really important for him. Um, but other than that, he checks all the boxes of a future top six center in the league.

SPEAKER_00 8:36

All right. So according to Scott's rankings, we have Gavin McKenna number one, Evar Stenberg two, we got Chase Reed at three, we have Caleb Maholtr at four, Albert Schmitz at five, Vigo Bjork, six, Karsten Carls seven, Keaton Verhoff, eight, Ryan Lynn, nine, and Daxton Rudolph at number ten. Now I had a question for you about Ryan Lynn. You still have him in your top ten, which is one of the highest among the public scouts. Uh, what makes him a top 10 still in your books?

SPEAKER_02 9:10

I just think it every every time I've seen him play at the same level with the Rudolphs and the Verhoffs and the Carls, he's been every bit as impactful as them. He was every bit as impactful as they were in his two years in the WHL for me when they've played together at U18 two U18 Worlds and one Halenka Gretzky Cup. I thought he stood out there. I thought he was excellent at the CHL USA Prospects Challenge in November. He was injured, unfortunately, for the WHL top prospects game, but uh was a driver all year in all situations in every area of the ice on a poor Vancouver Giants team that missed the playoffs. Uh the offense has really come. He's begun to play with more ambition. He's competitive, he's physical. Um, despite the fact that he's 5'11, he he plays hard, he defends well. He's one of the most mature defenders in this draft class in terms of stick detail, box outs, board battles, um, reads, all of it is just is high end. The challenge that Wynne faces is that he's 5'11, 5'11 and a half. I heard that they've updated, though they haven't published it yet. I've heard that they've updated his listening to 5'11 and a half. Um, and he's not a burner in straight lines. He's an excellent skater in a lot of ways. Through his edges, surfing, closing gaps, turning back on pucks, his first touch is always into his pocket. Um, all of those things are are sort of very, very real assets for him. The the challenge that he's going to face is that he's not a sort of straight lines burner. Like he doesn't have that that Carson Carl's power down the ice, that Chase Reed smoothness down the ice. Um, but he's he's a very, very well-rounded, polished defender. And I think he's one of the most complete defenders in this class. And once you get through sort of the premium D, I think he's I think he's right there with with a Daxon Rudolph, for example. Uh obviously Daxon's bigger and he's been a little bit more productive this season at least. But I think uh if you'd swap them situations, if you'd put Daxon Rudolph on the Vancouver Giants and you'd put Ryan Lynn on the Prince Albert Raiders, I think that you you'd you'd probably be having a conversation about them as very comparable prospects. So um that that I've just been a huge fan of his. Like he's just a kid that I'm prepared to stick my neck out for a little bit. He's not going to go in the top 10. Um, I'll be fascinated to see where he does go. I think he probably lands sort of late teens, if I had to guess, like that sort of 17, 18, 19 uh range, maybe very early 20s at the latest, like 21, 22 would probably be the floor for him. Um and then I could see maybe see him as early as like 14-15 to the right team. So we'll see. But um I just think he's an awesome, awesome player. That's the bottom line. And I think he's at he's gonna go to Denver and have a great career at Denver, and then we're gonna be seeing him in the NHL.

SPEAKER_01 12:13

All right, now moving on, uh, looking at the rest of the uh the middle of this uh ranking, we have got Tynan Lawrence at 11, Wyatt Cullen all the way up at 12. Love to see that. Ethan Belchez, who just committed to Michigan State today at 13, Malte Gustison at 14, Hermanson at 15, Klepov at 16, Oscar Hamming at 17, and then to round off the top 20, Adam Novotny at 18, Nordmark at 19, and Xavier Villeneuve at 20. I want to talk about one of the highest risers on your entire list. Uh, that would be Wyatt Cullen. Um, he's made a significant jump uh in only these two months, uh, and obviously there's a lot of things that you can pick apart as something that has made him stand out. Um, the U 18's performance, the his uh his young age, his ability, or his development path. Which which for you has pretty much increased his stock the most?

SPEAKER_02 13:05

Well, I think he just played at a really high level when healthy this year. Obviously, dealt with the hip injury, which was literally a byproduct of growing pains. This is a kid who a little more than a year ago, about a year and a half ago, when he arrived at the program, was five foot five and 120 pounds. He's now six foot one and 176 pounds, I believe is his listing. Um, and this year at When Healthy, he's been, he was, the season's obviously over now, he was the most impressive forward on a consistent basis, the most consistent offensive forward for this year's program team. Um, he's dynamic in terms of the one-on-one game, the skill package, the skating, the feat, the maneuverability, the control of his edges, the ability to attack on angles and beat guys on cuts. Uh, he does play one-on-one a little bit too much. That's that's the common gripe with with Cullen is that there's a little bit too much one-on-one in his game. But the skill level is impressive. He's got a bit of that James Haggins look to him where he's out over his edges and he's weaving around the ice, and his head is head and eyes are always up. Um, and I'm just uh he's just from a pure skill standpoint. I think once you get through the true, true premium forwards in this class, that he belongs right at the front of that next tier, which is why I've sort of moved him into that group with Belchez uh and Lawrence sort of just outside the top ten.

SPEAKER_01 14:32

I love that you mentioned James Haggins in that in that little diatribe there. He's he's someone who honestly like looks like a like a light version of James Higgins uh when he's when he's skating. So it's very refreshing to see that.

SPEAKER_02 14:45

And Haggins was a center, and Haggins was more prolific in terms of scoring and point production and pedigree. But I think part of that has to do with uh with how small um Cullen was as a U-17 player. And this year I think he looked a lot more like James, uh obviously with the position differences being what they are and uh Wyatt's a little bit taller, like Haggins is 5'11 and and Wyatt's obviously 6'1.

SPEAKER_01 15:12

I mean, yeah, but it's it's it's it's it's it's good to see now that Hagen has uh, I mean, even after his first draft year, he looked really good in his uh short sample size with with Boston. So very good to see that that comparison being made, I think. But you know, it's they're still very quite different players. Um Colin with probably a different development path. Uh another side question, do you think that he's going to play the full year in Minnesota next year, or is he gonna start at Tri-City who has his uh CHL rights? Is that something that uh is that the path for him next year?

SPEAKER_02 15:43

Yeah, I didn't haven't really talked to him or his dad Matt about that. Um I I would guess that he's at Minnesota next year um that he makes the jump to college hockey, but increasingly I think kids are open to the idea of playing their post-draft season in the CHL and then making the jump to college hockey. I think that Wyatt is a talent that belongs in college hockey, though. Like I I look around at some of the players sort of his age, uh, good skaters, skilled players who've made that jump in recent years, and I think about um Cullen Potter and others, and and he's he's he's further along in a lot of ways than than guys like Potter, who stepped in at Arizona State and and was a productive top six player for them, right? So uh I think the talent level is so high end, the skating is so high end that as long as he's healthy and he feels good about his summer, that uh college hockey should be the destination for him next year.

SPEAKER_00 16:42

Great. All right, I had a question uh regarding your top 32. Now, if we're talking about the real draft, is there potential for some of these prospects outside of your top 32 that might jump into the first round of the actual draft based on you know NHL kind of you know what their thought process is?

SPEAKER_02 17:03

Yeah, I mean the the the interesting guys in that sort of late first, early second round range are always the high skill 5'11, six-foot wingers, right? Like those the centers tend to go higher. Um the the D tend to go higher, with the exception of smaller D like a Xavier Villeneuve or a Tommy Blyle. Uh those guys tend to go higher. It's it's sort of the Mathis Prestons, the Thomas Terenko's, the Liam Rux, the Marcus Rux, the Igor Shilobs. Those guys aren't likely going to go in the first round. And if if one or two of them go in the first round, that's probably the limit. A lot of those guys are going to be day two picks. That's just the way that the draft always goes. Um, I believe that Preston has has shown enough to still warrant being a first round pick, but I don't think that's a universally held belief. In fact, I know that it's not a universally held belief. I'm working on something on Preston right now. Um, bit of a mixed bag in terms of the way that people think about him. She loves, same thing. Like she loves a six-foot center, and he was highly productive in in the QMJHL this year and in the USHL before that, but he's low pace and he doesn't play the way that people want him to play. And as a result, those guys tend to linger maybe more than the average fan might might expect them to. So those are the guys, even though they're sort of potentially rated tech quote unquote technically in my first round, they're guys that I would expect will be available later. Um, obviously the Rux are kind of a late first, second round wild card. I'll be fascinated to see where they land. And I've also got something in the works on both of them at the athletic. And um a lot sort of a lot of those guys sort of fit into that that group. It's it's always the skilled, one-dimensional, average-sized wingers that that have a tough time sort of sticking in the first round.

SPEAKER_01 18:59

Uh, two players that I noticed uh were not in your first round, uh uh Maddox Dajnay and Yuho Pipparainen, they've been uh lauded as guys uh from a lot of other sources as guys who are projected to go in the first round. Maddox Dajnay has had a significant uh increase in his uh NHL Central Scouting rankings from the beginning of the year to the point where he is, I think, top 14, if I'm not mistaken, in North American skating. Uh I I could I could totally be wrong about that. Um, yeah, he's top 15 in the final rankings. Um what caused you to be more cautious on these guys and kind of sour on guys like Dajnay and Pip Ryan?

SPEAKER_02 19:38

Yeah, I'm I'm not sour on I have soured a little bit on Pip Rainen. I'm I'm not I like Maddox a lot. Um he was kind of in that that sort of late 20s, early 30s group for him, even though I have him in the in the 30s on my list. He's a player who I could I would absolutely consider taking at the end of the first round, and he's going to go in the first round. Um, but Maddox isn't is is a bit of an imperfect player, and it's been a bit of a journey for him. He dealt with concussion issues a year ago. Um, this year uh and and major consistency issues, although how much of that is the injuries and how much isn't is uh is sort of that's a judgment that teams are going to have to make. And then this year it was sort of a little bit of the same thing without the injuries, but um just some ups, some real ups and downs, some inconsistency in his play. He's a six foot three natural center, but he's going to be a winger uh at the pro level. The widely held belief amongst NHL scouts is that he's he's a winger. Um and the skill is there, the size is there, he skates well, he's he's at times extremely physical. There was a lot of talk this year about some of the big reverse hits that he delivered and that that side of things. I had a uh rival GM sort of describe him as Tom Wilson that when he's at his best, like that's that's what he can be. But the the challenge is that Tom Wilson is that in every single game he's ever played, and that has not always been the case for Maddox. There's just inconsistency in his defensive habits and his commitment off the puck, in his energy level, his work rate. Um, and that has sort of been a constant in his game, and it's just left me um not sort of in love with him. I I like the player, I I think there's a clear path for him to become an NHL player. This is a former first overall pick into the QMJHL, a real talent. Um, but the production hasn't always lined up with the skill level and with the profile. And I just want to see him be more consistent. So um uh Pip Ryan's a bit of a different case. Like Pip Ryan obviously was viewed quite fondly by NHL scouts coming out of in particular the Hellenka Gretzky Cup last summer. Um, then he played a full year as a as a young 17 year old. He's a summer birthday, uh, played a full year uh at at a professional level in Liga this year and held his own. The challenge with Yuho that I've had is that it's just extremely vanilla. And he's never going to be a points guy. He's never going to run a power play in the NHL. I just think he's very ordinary in a lot of ways. He's a he's not big by any, even though he's six foot one and 200 pounds, that's not big by NHL standards. He skates well, but I wouldn't call him an elite skater. Uh defends well, but I wouldn't call him a lockdown defender necessarily. Um and so I've just I've wondered a little bit about him. Like I just I wouldn't feel comfortable, I don't think, taking him as a day one guy. And if he goes on and becomes a number four defenseman, and um then that's fine. But I think there are other players in that sort of late first range that I'd be more comfortable with. Um and I've just wondered at times about uh just how vanilla his game is with the puck, and even at times defensively, frankly.

SPEAKER_00 22:54

Well, I think that covers it for this show, Scott. Thank you so much for dropping by and uh talking the 2026 NHL Draft Class. And if you want to see Scott's work, head over to The Athletic. He has amazing articles. And uh yeah, thanks again. And hopefully we'll be uh seeing you right before the draft to chat some more hockey. Cheers. Anytime, guys. Cheers.